Flooding on the Coromandel Peninsula on Monday. The area should get a chance to dry out on Tuesday and Wednesday before showers move in at the end of the week, followed by an expected settled, cooler spell.
A spell of generally unsettled weather for much of the country in the next few days is expected to give way to a cold snap by the weekend.
The comparatively warm, wet and windy weather that has dominated much of the North Island on Queen’s Birthday Monday is expected to be followed by a mostly dry Tuesday across a large part of the country.
But after that showers move back and MetService expects many areas to have rain on Thursday, with strong southerlies in the east and north of the South Island and gale southerlies developing about Cook Strait by evening. That is expected to be followed by a cooler, more settled spell.
“All the indications – based on looking at a lot of different weather models – now suggest conditions are going to be settled, most likely with a cool southwesterly regime at least for the weekend and start of next week,” MetService meteorologist Tom Adams said.
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“We have this low over us now (Monday). There’s another trough that crosses over in mid-week.
“Then after that we see high pressure pushing over the Tasman Sea. New Zealand is going to sit on the edge of it, meaning we’re going to have a persistent southerly flow.”
While it was still too far off to have a detailed outlook, the signs were there was likely to be some variation of fairly settled weather next week, Adams said.
“We’re going to see a combination of two things as we get to the end of this week and start of next week – cold air coming from the south and skies clearing as the high pressure pulls over.
Most places in the North Island didn’t drop out of double figures overnight Sunday, and nowhere in the North Island dropped below 6 degrees Celsius.
But by Saturday pretty much anywhere south of Auckland would have minimum temperatures in single digits, Adams said.
Taumarunui was expected to have minimum temperatures of 1C on Saturday, which was cold enough for a frost to develop. Christchurch was expected to get down to -2C on Friday and Saturday.
Fairly widespread frosts were expected on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Hamilton was expected to get down to 4C on Friday and Saturday. “That’s probably enough to get a frost in some sheltered valleys,” Adams said.
On Monday afternoon, MetService was predicting minimum temperatures of 10C in Auckland for the six days from Friday. Palmerston North and Nelson are expected to get to 4C on Friday and Saturday, with Timaru getting to -2C on those days.
MetService is forecasting rain with snow to 800 metres in the Canterbury High Country on Thursday, and down to 600m north of Mt Hutt.
Snow flurries are in the forecast for the Southern Lakes area on Thursday above 900m, possibly affecting the Crown Range Road. On Saturday snow could possibly lower to 800m.