Feds to provide update on COVID-19 modelling for Canada

The federal government says it will provide reporters with an update on COVID-19 data and modelling on Tuesday.

The briefing is set to be held in Ottawa at noon.

The federal government last released modelling projections on April 9. That model predicted that Canada could see anywhere between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths due to COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic.

The same model predicted that between 2.5 and five per cent of the population would eventually become infected with the virus, with the country seeing close to 2 million infections in a worst-case scenario.

So far, Canada has recorded 48,500 cases of COVID-19. There have been 2,707 COVID-19 deaths in the country to date, most of them in Ontario and Quebec.

Recently-revised modelling in Ontario projected that there will be 20,000 cases of COVID-19 in the province during the first wave of the pandemic. That number is down from modelling which weeks earlier had predicted 80,000 infections in a best-case scenario.

Public health officials have warned that modelling is merely a tool to provide guidance to health officials and that actual outcomes are determined in large part by the degree to which citizens adopt behaviours intended to mitigate the spread of the virus.

CP24 will carry the announcement live when it happens.